Completed Projects
(by start year)2008
Metropolitan Travel Survey Archive Phase III USDOT Federal Highway AdministrationCost: $25,000. Time: One year.
Value Capture Project State of Minnesota
Cost: $300,000. Time: One Year
The accessibility that transportation networks provide has a direct influence on the value of land, particularly in urban areas. Improvements to transportation networks alter the relative accessibility of places, and thus land values. The capitalization of these accessibility benefits into land value provides a source of benefit that can be extracted in order to finance, at least partially, transportation facilities and services. This practice of “value capture” is particularly useful in cases where it is difficult or impossible to finance improvements from direct user charges. This study will provide an extensive review of the value capture concept. It will review the theoretical and empirical literature on the relationship between transportation and land values, including the measurement of benefits from a transportation improvement. It will also review legal and economic frameworks for capturing the value gains resulting from a transportation improvement. These may include, but need not be limited to, land taxes and other property-based taxes, fees and special assessments, developer contributions and various market-based instruments. The study will conclude with recommendations for each type of value capture instrument. Each will be evaluated on the criteria of efficiency, equity, adequacy and feasibility.Measuring the Structure of Multi-Modal Transportation Networks for the Prediction of Travel Behavior in Florida. Florida Department of Transportation
Cost: $133,117.83. Time: July 1, 2008 - June 20, 2010
This research proposes that the key measurable characteristics of network architecture of multi-modal networks affect travel behavior, such as mode choice and trip length, and system properties, such as highway congestion, after controlling for attributes that are not explicitly network based, such as land use or urban scale.
2007
The role of Social Networks and Information and Communications Technology on Destination Choice. Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs State and Local Policy Project, Techplan Program.This research proposes to investigate the impact of traditional social networks and information and communications technology (ICT) on travelers’ destination choice. Earlier models of travel demand were aggregate in nature and found their roots in statistical mechanics rather than the behavioral basis of those decisions. Over the years advances in disaggregate modeling have led to improvements in traditional models giving them theoretical framework that related human behavior. As time has progressed, so have the models of travel demand going from the traditional four step process to disaggregate models of individual choice as widely seen in route choice models. These models by and large assume independent actors that make decisions based on their own personal taste. The extent to which social networks and information and communication technologies affect where our destinations are located is an area that is gaining more focus. This project proposes to undertake a study of the extent to which both traditional social networks and communication technologies (and social networks mediated by those technologies) affect these choices. In two phases this project hopes to develop models that incorporate important elements of social networks and ICT for different trip purposes. One dimension of travel is that part of it is derived to engage in activities where other people, who can be friends or acquaintances, are met. Even the work trip can be thought of as an engagement where multiple people get together in a particular time slot to engage in their respective responsibilities. It has already been established that a majority of work finding occurs through weak social ties rather than through any formal search (Granovetter 1974). Recent work by the authors of this proposal on a randomly selected area of the Twin Cities observes that there is a statistically significant clustering between where individuals live and where they work. One possible explanation for this clustering is that some of the networks that lead to finding jobs may be transmitted at the neighborhood level leading to the observed clustering. The Internet also provides a wide range of information on job availability. It is expected that a number of people find their jobs using this medium, but also that there maybe differences across sectors of the economy on its prevalence o as a tool for finding jobs. Knowing the demographic characteristics of the people who use this medium to find work, and which sectors are more likely than others to find workers using this medium allows more specific analysis than knowing only how many workers are attracted to a particular zone. Outside of the work destined trip, it is also important to ascertain the extent to which ICT affects destination choice. Just as the Internet can be used to find jobs or organize meetings for multiple people, it is also possible that expanded access to the web has replaced the demand for face-to-face meetings and/or the requirements of travel for some activities. For example, people who want to buy a book can get more value by replacing the shopping trip to an hour on the web where they can find more information on a book from others that have read it before and more recommendation. In other cases the web can also be used to locate particular destinations for leisure, meetings or shopping. It both expands the choices for people beyond what they know of locally and can potentially replace some activities. To answer these questions on the role of traditional social networks and ICT on destination choice, this research proposes to undertake a detailed study of employees of a particular firm where individuals are asked about the mechanisms through which they located their jobs. For example we will ask what means (e.g. recruiters, informal contacts, the web etc.) they used for finding their jobs; if contacts are used, we will ask where they are located and how information about the work reached them. By understanding the information path for different types of jobs and the systematic similarities between them, it is expected that the models of work destination can be made more specific than those done at the aggregate level. For non-work trips, respondents will be asked how their social networks and the web affect their decisions for destinations. Some of the questions of interest are to what extent they organize meetings (both physical and virtual) over the web (limiting their network to those who have similar access), do they replace trips because of the web, do they find new destinations using the web, how in general does it affect their choices of where to shop or undertake leisure activities? Again it is expected that these considerations would lead to better and improved models that take into consideration that the people to be involved at those activities affect the destination choice in addition to the activities themselves.
Post-Construction Evaluation of Forecast Accuracy. Minnesota Department of Transportation
Cost: $51,832. Time: One year.
Evaluations of proposed projects and their subsequent performance depend critically on forecasts of demand made well in advance of actual implementation. Depending on the forecasting method used, there may be considerable uncertainty in projections of future benefits or other performance criteria. This study evaluates the accuracy of demand forecasts made for a sample of recently-completed projects and estimate the impact of forecast error on post-construction measures of project performance. Data for the study are drawn from pre-construction demand forecasts, combined with recent traffic volume data from Mn/DOT. Results are compared for urban and suburban projects, as well as for different functional classes. The research concludes with some suggestions for managing and possibly reducing uncertainty in project demand forecasts.[Download Final Report Mn/DOT 2009-11]Economic Impact of Upgrading Roads. Minnesota Department of Transportation
Cost: $72,636. Time: One year.
Improvements to transportation networks, especially those in growing areas, tend to have impacts on local land markets. In principle, an improvement to a link in the network will confer economic benefits to adjacent and nearby properties. Depending on the type of improvement (construction of a new link, capacity addition to an existing link, or upgrading an existing link), the benefit could represent a reduction in the time cost of travel or other variable costs (fuel consumption or mileage-related vehicle depreciation). Theory would suggest that these benefits are capitalized into local property values, yielding a localized external benefit. This research will explore the nature and magnitude of such benefits. Using a sample of property sales data for Minnesota counties, both rural and urban, we will explore the impacts of upgrading roads on nearby property values. We will also attempt to track and model the cost of road upgrades considered in the sample in order to provide rough comparisons of these costs with the estimated benefits flowing from the various projects. It is also important to note that such upgrade can have a negative effect due to the external factors (e.g. noise, pollution). These factors will also be taken in the estimation of the effects of network upgrades on nearby land value. [Download Final Report Mn/DOT 2009-16]SGER: Small Grant for Exploratory Research: Responding to the Unexpected: Understanding Travelers' Behavioral Choices in the Wake of the Mississippi River Bridge Collapse. National Science Foundation
Cost: $17,000. Time: One year.
This research aims to (1) Collect both aggregated traffic data and disaggregated panel survey data that will help to understand the traveler’s behavioral choice and traffic pattern evolution after the event; (2)Perform preliminary analysis on collected traffic data; and (3) Identify short-term and long-term research needs concerning traveler’s behavioral response and traffic management strategies after network disruption.
Job-Housing Mismatch: An Affinity Model of Worker-Job Matching. Center for Urban and Regional Affairs University of Minnesota.
Cost ~$44,000. Time One year.Traditionally, travel surveys based on 1% of the population are used to understand travel behavior. Recently, much more complete data has become available to researchers and policy makers, allowing them to better understand job- housing mismatch in a region. The Longitudinal Employer–Household Dynamics dataset, available from the Minnesota Department of Labor, includes residence and employment location information for each employed individual in the Twin Cities metropolitan area (excluding self-employed and selected sales personnel). Using these data, as well as data from other sources, this project will analyze the relationship between people’s choices of residence relative to their employment locations in the Twin Cities region. This project will extend travel behavior research to help understand the characteristics of people’s choices of residence relative to their employment locations. The central research hypothesis is that although travel time and income are important factors in where people live and work, other factors may help shape the commuting patterns observed in metropolitan areas. Certain residential neighborhoods produce more workers for a given employment district and in a given industrial classification than can be explained by travel time and income alone. By better identifying the causal factors in travel location, travel demand modelers, transportation planners, and engineers will be better able to address job-housing mismatches and imbalances between demand skills and worker skill sets.
2006
Access to Destinations: Monitoring land use activity changes in the Twin Cities Metropolitan region. Minnesota Department of Transportation and Hennepin County, Minnesota. Cost $88,000. Time Two years.
Any accessibility measure has two main components. First is land use activity or attraction, while the second is transportation system including network impedance. This research concentrates on changes in land use activity over time in the Twin Cities metropolitan region as a part of the Access to Destinations research program being developed at the Center for Transportation Studies, University of Minnesota. In a typical land use and transportation cycle, any change in land use is expected to lead to changes in the transportation characteristics. Meanwhile the change in transportation infrastructure and/or characteristics is expected to lead to changes in land use and so on. Accordingly it is essential for any accessibility project to have a full understanding of the consequences of changes. This research propose to develop a land use change prediction model that can be integrated with network growth models to help in developing measure of accessibility over time. This model will assist in understanding the consequences of changes in land use activity in the Twin Cities metro region while accounting for changes and effects of the transportation system.
Visiting Academic, Dr. Levinson: The Co-Evolution of Transport Networks and Land Use. Economic and Social Research Council
Cost: £89,000. Time: One year.
This project will fund an eminent academic visitor to the UK for one year. Prof. David Levinson, from the University of Minnesota will conduct research on the evolution of transport networks in the UK, such as rail and road networks. This will help us to understand how these networks grow and develop over time. This requires us to understand how travellers and land developers use these networks, both in conducting travel, and in developing the land. This research will build a theoretical and empirical model, using information and data collected in the UK, that will allow us to forecast this growth in the UK. This project will develop a model of the co-evolution of networks and land use, combining what is known about transport demand, and particularly induced demand, and transport investment. This model will provide an understanding of the growth of networks and how these evolve over time.
2005
Metropolitan Travel Survey Archive: Phase 2. Federal Highway Administration ProjectThis project reviews the literature on accessibility and its performance measures with an emphasis on measures that planners and decision makers can understand and replicate. It also gauges the appropriate measures of accessibility, while illustrating the accessibility measures.
This project extended the Metropolitan Travel Survey Archive and enabled online statistical analysis of over 50 travel surveys.Effectiveness of Learning Transportation Network Growth. University of Minnesota Digital Media Center
Time: One Year
Computer simulation plays an increasingly important role in engineering education as a tool for enhancing classroom learning. This research investigates the efficacy of using simulation in teaching the topic of transportation network growth through an experiment conducted at the Civil Engineering Department of the University of Minnesota. In the experiment, a network growth simulator program (SONG 1.0) was incorporated into a senior/graduate class in transportation system analysis. Results of the experiment show that the use of SONG 1.0 effectively enhanced students learning in terms of helping students develop in-depth understanding about the development process of network patterns, and helped them develop some aspects of judgment, problem-solving, and decision-making skills.
2004
Studying the Needs of the Transportation Disadvantaged: Elderly This project investigates the travel demands and activities (in terms of both actual behavior and unmet needs) of transportation disadvantaged individuals. Broadly, transportation disadvantaged populations include elderly, poor, children, persons who do not speak English, the physically disabled, and the developmentally disabled. To date there has been no comprehensive study of the transportation demands of these disadvantaged populations, who have been ignored in conventional transportation planning. Each group warrants an independent study of significant depth, which is beyond the scope of this single proposal. This first phase of this project will focus on the needs of the elderly and developmentally disabled. and Developmentally Disabled This project investigates the travel demands and activities (in terms of both actual behavior and unmet needs) of transportation disadvantaged individuals. Broadly, transportation disadvantaged populations include elderly, poor, children, persons who do not speak English, the physically disabled, and the developmentally disabled. To date there has been no comprehensive study of the transportation demands of these disadvantaged populations, who have been ignored in conventional transportation planning. Each group warrants an independent study of significant depth, which is beyond the scope of this single proposal. This first phase of this project will focus on the needs of the elderly and developmentally disabled. Cost: $90,000. Time: 18 Months. Hennepin County Project
This project investigates the travel demands and activities (in terms of both actual behavior and unmet needs) of transportation disadvantaged individuals. Broadly, transportation disadvantaged populations include elderly, poor, children, persons who do not speak English, the physically disabled, and the developmentally disabled.Beyond Business as Usual: Ensuring the Network We Want is the Network We Get. MnDOT
Cost: Time: Two Years
This research, extending the Mn/DOT-funded project If They Come, Will You Build It, assesses the implications of existing trends on future network construction. It compares forecast networks (using models estimated on historical decisions developed with previous research) under alternative budget scenarios (trend, above trend, below trend), with networks constructed according to alternative sets of decision rules developed with Mn/DOT and Metropolitan Council staff. The comparison evaluates alternative futures using a set of performance measures to determine whether the network we would get in the absence of a change in policies (allowing historical policies to go forward) outperforms or underperforms the networks developed by applying suggested decision rules. This evaluation methodology enables new decision rules for network construction (building new links or widening existing links) to be tested. The research suggests a path beyond "business as usual". This research incorporates results from the different scenarios tested. It presents the processes, approaches and development to encode historical decision rules. After analyzing flowcharts developed from the interviews of staff at different levels of government, if-then rules are generated for each jurisdiction. This research then describes the details and processes necessary to run the network forecasting models with various decision rules. Results for different scenarios are presented including adding additional constraints for the transportation network expansion and calibration process details. A comparison and analysis between scenarios is made in order to provide a final conclusion on what scenario will produce the greatest benefit for the Twin Cities Metropolitan Area Transportation Network.Value of Information for Motorists. MnDOT
Cost: Time: One Year
While there is a sizable body of literature on the benefits of travel information, most of it is based on theory or on simulations. This experiment analyzes results based on a field test of 117 drivers completing the same point-to-point trip in their own vehicles via five different routes. Participants traveled both arterial and freeway routes, assessed the travel information that was provided, evaluated the importance of the accuracy of the information and charted their route preferences for various trip purposes. Researchers were not looking merely for perceived time savings but driver perception of the value of the time saved in order to make projections about whether drivers would be willing to pay for accurate travel updates as a means of reducing overall cost, anxiety and uncertainty while driving. Knowledge of how much users want to pay for Advance Travel Information System (ATIS) services is necessary for the design of sustainable for-profit private services or private/public partnerships.Benefit-Cost Analysis for Intersection Decision Support. MnDOT
The Intersection Decision Support (IDS) system is designed to assist drivers on stop-controlled low-volume rural roads choosing gaps when confronted with busy multiple lane divided-highways, without affecting traffic on the high-volume road. The hope is, that by providing better gap guidance, fewer crashes (and fatalities) will occur. This research develops a framework for analyzing such a new, and presently under-specified technology, and illustrates that framework by comparing that with more conventional engineering approaches, as well as a “do- nothing” base case. The results show that the IDS System may be an effective tool to reduce crash rates at various intersections. More research is needed to address reliability and stability issues, and in determining how cost- effective of a solution the IDS System is compared to other “traditional” alternatives. (Mn/DOT 2007-32
2003
CAREER Award: The Evolution of Transportation Networks: Empirical Research and Agent-Based Models. National Science Foundation
Cost: $400,000. Time: Five years.
This research endeavors to understand the evolutionary growth process of transportation networks at a theoretical and empirical level, recognizing the inter-dependence of supply and demand, and to develop agent-based models to replicate that process.Metropolitan Travel Survey Archive: Phase 1. Bureau of Transportation Statistics
This project developed a Metropolitan Travel Survey Archive to store, preserve, and make publicly available, via the internet, travel surveys conducted by metropolitan areas, states and localities.Guidelines for Cost-Benefit Analysis of Investment in Bicycle Facilities. National Cooperative Highway Research Program
Cost: $300,000. Time: 18 months.
The focus of this research plan is to develop guidelines to measure the benefits and costs of limited transportation funds in order to achieve four principal objectives:
- To compare investments in bicycling with other modes.
- To evaluate whether a bicycle facility is justified.
- To choose the appropriate bicycle facility.
- To better integrate cycling into the general transportation planning process.
2002
Cost/Benefit Study of Spring Load Restrictions. MNDOTThe objective of this study is to determine the economic benefits and costs of spring load restrictions, and based on the findings to determine the optimal restrictions (increases) or heavy load taxes to minimize the combined cost of infrastructure and cost to the industry and commuters. In order to accomplish this objective a number of intermediate objectives are undertaken: Review and synthesize the freeze-thaw effect on material properties and structural capacity to determine how changes in material properties translate into increased/reduced life of pavement; Assign pavement-associated costs/benefits to levels of increased/reduced damage; Determine the demand patterns of large trucks throughout the year; Estimate the value of freight movement on the road network; Estimate the costs of substitute vehicle, routes, modes, schedules; Assign industry associated costs/benefits to various levels of increased/reduced damage; Develop optimal the combination of taxes and restrictions and network improvementsCost: $300,000. Time: Two years.
The objective of this study is to determine the economic benefit/cost of spring load restrictions, and based on the findings to determine the optimal restrictions (increases) or heavy load taxes to minimize the combined cost of infrastructure and cost to the industry and commuters.Ramp Delays, Freeway Congestion, and Driver Acceptance. ITS InstituteMinnesota's pre-shutdown ramp metering algorithms tried to maximize throughput, implicitly minimizing total delay. If time at the ramp is not weighted the same as time-in-motion by users, this time-minimizing strategy may not be utility-maximizing for travelers. This research will attempt to quantify the weights individuals associate with qualitatively different experiences of travel time: waiting at a ramp meter or freeway-to-freeway ramp meter and traveling at different freeway speeds requiring varying numbers of acceleration and deceleration shifts, using experiments in the HumanFIRST Driving Simulator. This information will enable us to better time ramp meters in a way that responds to individual perceptions, to maximize utility rather than minimizing travel time.
Cost: $173,265. Time: Two Years
This research quantifies the weights individuals associate with qualitatively different experiences of travel time: waiting at a ramp meter or freeway-to-freeway ramp meter and traveling at different freeway speeds requiring varying numbers of acceleration and deceleration shifts, using experiments in the Human FIRST Driving Simulator. This information enables us to better time ramp meters in a way that responds to individual perceptions, to maximize utility rather than minimizing travel time.
2001
If They Come, Will You Build It. MNDOTThis research will determine the decision rules used by agencies to choose the size of the network relative to demand by examining the actual (revealed) results of what projects are funded. It is hypothesized that simple factors (such as traffic growth rates, volume to capacity ratios, and comparison with adjacent upstream and downstream links) explain much of the resulting decisions. This investigation will examine a time series of local highway capital improvement projects and decisions for the Twin Cities metropolitan region relating them to network structure characteristics. This research will estimate a function that relates capacity to demand factors. Demand will be measured directly using traffic. The term "capacity" is used here broadly to mean a vector of multiple attributes that describe the physical nature of the transportation network. These include the traditional engineering capacity measure (maximum flow per unit time), as well as free-flow speed or travel time, and other attributes.Cost: $84,546. Time: Two years.
This research will determine the decision rules used by agencies to choose the size of the network relative to demand by examining the actual (revealed) results of what projects are funded. It is hypothesized that simple factors (such as traffic growth rates, volume to capacity ratios, and comparison with adjacent upstream and downstream links) explain much of the resulting decisions.Value Pricing Project. US Department of Transportation To date, there has been no systematic attempt to examine the relationship between the hierarchy of roads, appropriate level of jurisdiction, and means of financing. Two questions arise from these observations, which must be addressed simultaneously. First, what mechanism is appropriate to finance each different layer of the hierarchy? In some cases, there is competition between links for the same market. In others, a link acts as a monopoly, the only network path between two locations requires the use of a single facility. We may infer that some layers of the hierarchy are more suited to road pricing than others. Further, different types of road pricing (cordon tolls vs. perfect tolls) may be appropriate for different types of roads. Some layers of the hierarchy may warrant subsidy from general tax revenue, while others could be self-supporting with tolls. However, the pool from which this tax revenue is drawn may vary (should it be state, county, township, or neighborhood providing the subsidy), giving rise to the second question. Second, which level of government should manage or regulate which level of the network? There are a number of criteria for dividing the network hierarchically, relating to network function, flow, speed, excludability, competitiveness and alternatives, and locality of traffic. These criteria influence the decision to associate network layers with government layers. An essential issue surrounding hierarchy is the trade-off between span of control and scale economies, including standardization of the finance mechanism. Another is the trade-off between welfare loss associated with lower government levels managing roads that serve in part non-local traffic. Solutions for this problem include hybrid and decentralized organizations and the use of oversight rather than direct management by higher levels of the hierarchy.
(US DOT)Cost: $60,000. Time: Two years.
2000
Sustainable Transportation Applied Research Initiative. Humphrey Institute Project This research endeavors to understand the dynamic growth process of transportation networks at a theoretical and empirical level, recognizing the interdependence of supply and demand, and to develop a model to replicate that process. Key questions examined include: Why do networks expand and contract? How do expectations of the future (forecasts) affect current decisions? Do networks self-organize into hierarchies? What investment rules predict the sequence and location of network improvements? When are already existing facilities expanded (more lanes on the same link) as opposed to new facilities being provided (a new link)? How can transportation planning be improved to take advantage of a new understanding of network dynamics?Cost: $210,000. Time: Six years.
This research endeavors to understand the dynamic growth process of transportation networks at a theoretical and empirical level, recognizing the interdependence of supply and demand, and to develop a model to replicate that process. Places and Networks: The Changing Landscape of Transportation and Technology Final Summary Report of the STAR–TEA 21 Project (CTS 08-15) (Chapter 7)Measuring the Equity and Efficiency of Ramp Meters. MNDOT/International Road Federation The Twin Cities ramp meter system, while successfully increasing the efficiency of freeway traffic flow, has been subject to increased political scrutiny. That scrutiny is due in part to perceptions of inequity in the system. This research analyzed empirical data to assess the pre-October 2000 ramp control strategy and compare it with the “no ramp meter” case on a broad number of criteria. In general metering is efficient for most travelers, but it penalizes those making short trips at the expense of long trips. The research then developed a new ramp control strategy that explicitly addresses both equity and efficiency concerns, and found a strategy that is more efficient than prior strategies, and identified the tradeoff that can be made between efficiency and equity (the most efficient strategy is among the least equitable).
Cost: $161,082. Time: Two Years.
This research analyzed empirical data to assess the pre-October 2000 ramp control strategy and compare it with the “no ramp meter” case on a broad number of criteria. In general metering is efficient for most travelers, but it penalizes those making short trips at the expense of long trips. The research then developed a new ramp control strategy that explicitly addresses both equity and efficiency concerns, and found a strategy that is more efficient than prior strategies, and identified the tradeoff that can be made between efficiency and equity (the most efficient strategy is among the least equitable).
This project researches the cruise control systems currently being developed and used by many automotive manufacturers around the world. It focuses on two specific types of Adaptive Cruise Control (ACC).
This project estimates origin-destination trip tables from traffic counts.
1998
Evaluation Methods for Measuring the Value of ITS Services and Implementation. California PATH Research ProjectsTime: Five Years
As part of my Post Doctorate research, this project was funded through the California Path, and it led to the book: Assessing the Benefits and Costs of Intelligent Transportation Systems.
1994
The Full Cost of Intercity Transportation. California Department of TransportationThis study evaluates the full cost of three modes of intercity transportation: air, highway, and high speed rail. The evaluation is done within the context of the California Corridor, connecting the Los Angeles Basin and the San Francisco Bay Area. The purpose of evaluating full cost is to compare the economic implications of investment in, or expansion of, any of these three modes.